1. Deeper dives into the economic news
The economic news this week seemed less good than we have been seeing, but I saw a couple of deeper dives that cheered me right up. Here they are:
Why Biden and Most Americans Should Welcome the Latest GDP Report
The latest economic news may seem sobering, but it has the proverbial silver lining. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), part of the U.S. Department of Commerce, announced Thursday that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate from January to March, down sharply from the blistering 4.0 percent rate in the second half of last year. Here’s an economic primer on why the new numbers from BEA are actually good news for President Joe Biden, his reelection campaign, and everyone else.
Most importantly, the slowdown increases the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by late summer or early autumn.
At the same time, the new Bureau of Economic Analysis numbers also indicate that growth will likely rise again later this year. Consumer spending remains quite healthy, growing at a 2.5 percent rate in the first quarter.
Business also was fairly bullish in the first quarter as their fixed investments grew at a 2.9 percent rate, led by 5.4 percent gains in business spending on research and development and intellectual property. Housing also turned up in the first quarter, with residential investments growing at a blazing 13.9 percent annual rate.
Two developments slowed GDP growth in the first quarter, but each of them is encouraging in its own way. First, business investments in inventories fell. Given the strength in consumer spending, however, the next quarter’s data will likely show that inventories have turned around and are growing.
A bigger drag on growth came from fast-rising imports, up at a 7.2 percent annual rate, while exports grew only 0.9 percent. Fast-rising imports technically dampen gains in our “domestic product” (the DP in GDP) because imported goods and services are products produced elsewhere. But this “negative” development isn’t as negative as it may seem. It mainly shows that the United States remains the strongest economy in the advanced world: When our imports grow faster than our exports, it generally tells us that American consumers and businesses have the means and confidence to spend at faster rates than consumers and businesses in our trading partners.
So, on balance, the data showing GDP slowing in the first quarter of 2024 is likely a harbinger of better days ahead later this year.
Tell the truth about Biden’s economy
American workers’ wages have been rising faster than prices for more than a year now. Their nation’s economy, meanwhile, is the envy of the wealthy world: Since the Covid recession, the United States has seen nearly twice as much growth as any other major rich country without suffering significantly higher inflation. And economic analysts expect that America will continue to grow at double the rate of its peers for the rest of 2024.
This growth will enhance an already robust economy. The nation’s unemployment rate has sat below 4 percent for more than two years now, the longest such streak since the 1960s. With labor markets persistently tight, low-income workers have finally secured some leverage over their employers, and wage inequality has fallen as a result.
2. Watching Biden Campaign
Handsome Joe seems to be enjoying himself in this campaign and I am all here for it.
Biden goes on offense. And it makes a difference.
Biden’s punchier, more aggressive and funnier campaign has defied expectations set by those pushing the “too old” meme and underestimating his communication skills. Just months ago, Democrats were wringing their hands, trying to figure out if they could magically eject him from the race. Following a feisty State of the Union, however, Biden has taken on a more aggressive tone. The complaints have virtually disappeared.
We have seen Biden’s caustic ads lambasting former president Donald Trump, a full-throttle attack on Republican abortion bans and frequent Biden jabs at his opponent. Biden took Trump’s invitation to ask, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” and ran with it. And Biden’s team has begun mercilessly taunting Trump about his snoozing in court. Biden even reached back to the Trump presidency’s mishandling of covid, tweeting: “Don’t inject bleach. And don’t vote for the guy who told you to inject bleach.”
In a blistering speech in Florida on Tuesday, Biden made clear Trump bears ultimate responsible for the abortion bans popping up in the aftermath of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. “Let’s be real clear: There’s one person responsible for this nightmare, and he’s acknowledged and he brags about it: Donald Trump,” he said. He went on to mock Trump’s insistence that sending the issue to the states was working “brilliantly.” (He caustically asked: “It’s a six-week ban in Florida. It’s really brilliant, isn’t it? Even before women know they’re pregnant — is that brilliant?”) He wasn’t done. Trump “describes the Dobbs decision as a ‘miracle.’ ... Maybe it’s coming from that Bible he’s trying to sell, ” Biden said. “Whoa, I almost wanted to buy one just to see what the hell’s in it.”
The campaign has months to go. Biden’s supporters will need to steel themselves for the inevitable ups and downs in the campaign. But it’s hard to remember why Democrats were so distraught about nominating him. He’s not the one caught dozing off nearly every day, slurring his words, rambling incoherently about Gettysburg, running a sparse campaign schedule or whining about the temperature.
3. Seeing Democratic Enthusiasm
So this was evident in $$
ActBlue donations surge in Q1
Democratic donors gave a total of $151 million to House and Senate races through the ActBlue fundraising platform in the first quarter of 2024.
The ActBlue data reveals an increase from the same point four years ago, indicating growing Democratic grassroots support as the 2024 election season heats up.
Compared to Q1 2020, ActBlue donors gave 20% more to Senate races in Q1 2024. And donations to House races in the first quarter of 2024 grew by 29% compared to four years ago.
Zooming out from the congressional money game, ActBlue processed more than 10.7 million contributions in the first quarter totaling $460 million. The average ActBlue donation amount was $42.73. More than 2.4 million donors gave to ActBlue in Q1.
and this
Down-ballot Democrats dramatically outspend Republicans online
In addition to writing about random internet things that may or may not be impacting our politics, we’re also in the weeds each week closely tracking digital ad spending trends on both sides of the aisle. As the 2024 election cycle has begun to kick into gear, we’ve noticed one clear macro-trend emerging: Republicans are spending way less on digital advertising across the board.
4. Knowing that every moment of Trump’s legal troubles is draining their funds
Trump’s legal bills drain millions more from his political committees
Donald Trump is picking up his fundraising pace even as he fights criminal charges in four cases and appeals a nearly half-billion dollar civil fraud judgment against him in New York. But his legal expenses continue to be a tremendous burden on his campaign and its allied groups, the latest campaign finance records show, accounting for 26 percent of the spending in March by his political committees.
New Federal Election Commission filings released Saturday show that Save America leadership PAC, a Trump-aligned group he has used to pay some of his lawyers, took in $5 million during March and racked up $4.6 million in legal bills for Trump and some of his associates. Throughout this election cycle, Save America has spent the most on legal bills among the groups in Trump’s orbit.
Trump’s political committees have spent at least $16.7 million on legal bills so far this year, and owe another $900,000 to various firms as of the end of March, bringing his overall legal fees since starting his campaign to around $86 million.
5. Some good Polls
Honestly, I am skeptical of polling, but I’d still rather see if move in our direction ;-)
More encouraging polling
A new NPR/Marist poll released this morning is one of Biden’s best of the year:
51-48 (+3) Biden among registered voters
53-47 (+6) Biden among likely voters
That many polls now have Biden doing better among likely voters is very good news for us. For it suggests, as we saw in the GOP primaries, that as voters engage, become more informed, and more intent on voting Trump loses ground. This is what I believed would happen as we got deeper into the election - that as voters realized it was Biden vs the orange guy things would get better for us. And they are. The election is getting better for us.
Biden’s polls improve as Kennedy and third-party factor shifts
It’s been something approaching an article of faith on the left and in some corners of the media that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. poses a spoiler threat to President Biden’s reelection.
It’s never been quite clear that’ll be the case, though, particularly given that Kennedy is much more popular among Republicans than Democrats.
And now, there are growing signs that Kennedy and his fellow third-party candidates might not cost Biden after all. Indeed, they — and particularly Kennedy — could actually pull more from Trump.
Two new high-quality polls since Sunday bear this out.
6. More Good Primary News
everyone likes to talk about Biden taking a beating from his handling of Gaza, but it is Trump who looks worse with his party — people are voting for Haley even though she hasn’t been running in ages!
PA results show weakness for trump.
Republican primary
Votes received and percentages of total vote
Candidate |
Votes |
Pct. |
Del. |
winner
Donald Trump
|
791,049 |
83.4 |
16 |
Nikki Haley
|
157,723 |
16.6 |
0 |
An estimated 99 percent of votes have been counted.
|
7. Special Elections
I said it before and I’ll say it again: the best predictor of how we will do is how we are doing. We’ve seen that time and time again with special elections. And this week brought more good news
Democrats continue to overperform the 2020 baseline in special elections.
There was a special election in Pennsylvania this week. With Presidential primary elections on both sides, that means there was no excuse for either side not to turn out in the area. While Skibber did not win the seat (and really didn’t have a chance to), there was still a large overperformance when compared to 2020 results.
With a 60-40% win for the GOP, there was a 7.3% shift to the Democratic Party in this special election. That’s in line with other special elections showing a marked Democratic advantage. Ignore the polls — actual election results are showing that our base is fired up and ready to go, while their base is still divided and lagging in turnout.
8. Trump on trial
Sure, I’d love it if they convict trump, but whether that happens or not, I am LOVING have him stuck in that cold dingy courtroom listening to people talk shit about him. I am petty enough to admit how much I love that. A lot. I love it a lot.
At Trump’s N.Y. trial, the jury pool spoke, and he had to listen
The jury selection process for Trump’s hush money trial created something akin to a national focus group — albeit with a New York accent — giving ordinary Americans a chance to offer their opinions and reflections on the former president’s nearly five decades in the public spotlight.
As prosecutors and the defense team sought to weed out those with prejudiced views of Trump, one of the most polarizing figures in U.S. political history, a familiar dynamic was suddenly reversed. Ordinary New Yorkers who had for years listened to Trump talk about others were there to talk about him, and he was forced to listen — from a seat at the 15th-floor Manhattan courtroom’s defense table.
As prospective jurors criticized him, Trump sat, arms crossed, staring at them.
Another prospective juror had posted an artificial intelligence-generated deepfake video in which Trump appears to repeatedly call himself “dumb as f---.” The man insisted he could be fair, saying it was “just something that I reposted. What I think of the defendant outside of this room has nothing to do with the merits of the case.”
Another juror was presented with old social media posts she wrote, one calling Trump a “racist, sexist and narcissist.”
“Oops, that sounds bad,” she conceded after seeing the post, before promising to be fair. She was dismissed in what Merchan deemed a “close call.”
9. Trump didn’t get his cheering squad even though he pathetically begged for it!
😆😆😆😆😆😆
The Circus Trump Wanted Outside His Trial Hasn’t Arrived
Donald J. Trump was evidently not happy with what he saw out the window of his chauffeured S.U.V. as he rode through Lower Manhattan on Monday morning for the beginning of opening arguments in his first criminal trial.
The scene that confronted him as he approached the dingy courthouse at 100 Centre Street was underwhelming. Across the street, at Collect Pond Park, the designated site for protesters during the trial, only a handful of Trump supporters had gathered, and the number would not grow much throughout the morning.
10. Biden and Harris continue to do awesome things!
the Biden-Harris administration has announced a wide range of new rules to protect ordinary Americans
Vice President Kamala Harris announced that the administration has finalized two new rules affecting patients in nursing homes and receiving home care, as well as the workers who care for them. The first sets minimum staffing requirements for facilities funded by Medicare and Medicaid, and the second concerns how home healthcare companies account for Medicaid funding.
In a speech at the Hmong Cultural and Community Agency in La Crosse, Wisconsin, Harris noted the extraordinary value of healthcare workers. She also explained that about 1.2 million Americans live in federally funded nursing homes, which make up about four fifths of the nursing homes in the country. But the majority of those homes—about 75% of them—are understaffed. This is dangerous and isolating for patients and demoralizing for workers, who have high rates of burnout and turnover.
Now, nursing homes that receive federal funding will have to provide at least 3.48 hours of nursing care per resident every day, less than the 4.1 hours the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services advocate but enough to require the hiring of about 12,000 registered nurses and 77,000 aides, at an annual cost of almost $7 billion.
Consumer organizations and labor unions pushed for the new rule, but nursing home operators strongly oppose the new mandate, saying it will force facilities to close because of a shortage of nurses. In response, Health and Human Services secretary Xavier Becerra told Tami Luhby of CNN that no one should live in facilities that are unsafe or should receive inferior care. Luhby noted that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in September launched a $75 million campaign to increase the number of nurses in nursing homes.
The second rule the vice president announced had to do with home health aides. Medicaid currently pays about $125 billion a year to home healthcare companies, which employ hundreds of thousands of workers providing services for elderly and disabled Americans. These companies have never been required to report how that money was being spent. Now they will be required to spend 80% of the federal dollars they receive on workers’ salaries rather than administrative overhead.
Also yesterday, the Office for Civil Rights at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced a final rule that strengthens the HIPAA medical privacy rule for people from states that ban abortions who seek reproductive health care in states that permit them. In response to threats by Republican state officials to charge women who cross state lines to obtain abortion, contraception, or fertility treatments, the new rule prohibits health care providers, health plans, and other entities from disclosing patients’ reproductive health care records to state officials when they are being sought to investigate or charge patients, doctors, or others.
Today, the Labor Department announced a new rule that would guarantee that salaried workers who make less than $59,000 a year are compensated fairly for overtime work. The Trump administration set the salary threshold for those who did not have overtime protections at $35,568. As of July 1, 2024, the threshold will be $43,888, and on January 1, 2025, it will rise to $58,656. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), former chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, said the change could affect 4 million workers.
On Earth Day, Biden launched a new site to apply for Climate Corps jobs
President Biden marked Earth Day on Monday by launching a website for applications for his Climate Corps jobs and training program, a plan that has attracted a lot of interest from young Americans.
Biden launched the climate service program last fall, and within weeks the White House received more than 42,000 expressions of interest from Americans, most of them between the ages of 18 and 35.
"You'll get paid to fight climate change, learning how to install those solar panels, fight wildfires, rebuild wetlands, weatherize homes, and so much more," Biden said.
Eventually, the corps will employ more than 20,000 young people, according to the White House.
Biden said young Americans who take part in the program can also get linked up with training to help land apprenticeship positions through a partnership with the North America's Building Trades Unions. There's also a plan to help people use their new Climate Corps experience to apply for federal government positions.
On Monday, Biden also announced $7 billion in grants for solar panel projects for lower-income communities. The funding comes from the Inflation Reduction Act.
11. Biden OWNED the Republican House of Reps
The winner of this Congress? Joe Biden
House Republicans came into the 118th Congress with big plans. They were going to cut taxes and spending, impeach President Joe Biden and members of his Cabinet and use their leverage to force Democrats to accept stringent new border security and immigration policies. In short, they were going to shake up Washington, with Biden as their main focus.
That didn’t happen.
Instead, Biden has gotten pretty much everything he’s asked for from this Congress without having to concede much in return. True, it’s taken a while as the dysfunctional House slowly churned its way through the past 15-plus months.
Yet in the end, Biden has emerged as the big winner. On government funding, on FISA, and now on Ukraine and Israel, Biden got what he wanted.
The president hasn’t gone unscathed. Hunter and James Biden have been deposed as part of the House GOP impeachment inquiry into the Biden family’s finances. The Afghanistan investigation showed a dangerous disconnect between the State and Defense departments. Republicans have crushed the administration over the problems at the U.S.-Mexico border, forcing a shift in White House policy.
But House Republicans paid a much higher price due to their internal discord and dissension. GOP lawmakers have ousted one speaker while another may be forced to turn to Democrats to remain in power. And it gets worse from there:
→ In May 2023, Biden cut a debt-limit and spending deal with then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Biden gave a bit, agreeing to essentially a spending cap that progressives dislike, in return for a two-year increase in the debt limit. But the agreement cost McCarthy his job.
→ Speaker Mike Johnson kept those spending levels in place. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the White House held firm against poison-pill amendments in the 2024 spending bills that could’ve caused a shutdown.
→ Biden will get the $60 billion-plus in Ukraine aid he’s sought, although it’s coming months late and with battlefield consequences. The White House didn’t have to accept new restrictions on Ukraine funding, aside from some of it being deemed a “loan.”
→ Republicans impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas only to see it quickly dismissed by the Democratic-run Senate.
→ The Biden impeachment inquiry is fizzling out.
→ Johnson and former President Donald Trump killed a bipartisan Senate border security and immigration deal, despite the ongoing crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border. This has given some political space for Biden and Democrats on this issue.
→ And when they return to Capitol Hill next week, House Republicans will be down to a one-vote margin of control for a while as the GOP conference seethes.
A rotten week for MAGA Republicans’ feeble stunts
MAGA House Republicans would rather do anything but their jobs. They would rather indulge right-wing media consumers with baseless impeachments, motions to vacate the speaker’s chair (again!), fruitless hearings and parroting Russian propaganda. None of these activities serves the interests of the voters; none improves U.S. national security. For these minions of Donald Trump, chaos and paralysis appear to be the goal. Fortunately for the country, Democrats have figured out how to short-circuit the antics and humiliate Republicans.
Problems started in the House. The Republicans’ star legal witness and an even smattering of House and Senate Republicans conceded that there was no constitutional basis for impeaching Mayorkas. Jonathan Turley, a frequent Trump legal defender, readily acknowledged, “I don’t think they have established any of those bases for impeachment. ... The fact is, impeachment is not for being a bad Cabinet member or even a bad person. It is a very narrow standard.” Republicans never remotely reached the constitutional standard of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
Democratic partisans often find fault with their politicians for being “too nice” or “lacking a killer instinct.” Whatever the merits of their past complaints (e.g., leaving the filibuster in place), they should acknowledge that Democratic lawmakers — especially those in the minority of a chaotic, feckless House — have learned a thing or two over the past couple of years.
Democrats have learned to give Republicans the respect they deserve — which, often, is none.
12. A giant victory for unions!
UAW gets first Southern win as Tenn. plant overwhelmingly backs union
Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga, Tenn., passed a historic vote to join the United Auto Workers on Friday, making the auto factory the first in the South to vote to unionize since the 1940s.
Nearly three-quarters of 3,613 workers voted yes in a three-day election that drew high turnout, giving the union an impressive first win in its campaign to organize the factories of a dozen automakers in the South.
The vote marks the biggest organizing victory in years for the UAW and for the broader labor movement, which has long faced difficulty in Southern states. The UAW had twice previously failed to unionize the VW plant, in 2014 and 2019. VW Chattanooga will join a handful of other unionized auto factories in the South, where local laws and customs have made it hard for unions to make inroads.
The organizing effort caps off a strong year for the U.S. labor movement, which has won record wage increases in several industries through strikes and tough bargaining. The Teamsters scored big wins for UPS employees, while Hollywood actors and writers, and Kaiser nurses secured better wages and working conditions by staging walkouts. The UAW has had a particularly strong year under its new president Shawn Fain, winning large raises and other perks through an acrimonious strike against Detroit automakers in the fall.
13. Rare good climate news
We might be closer to changing course on climate change than we realized
the world may be closer than ever to turning a corner in the effort to corral climate change.
Last year, more solar panels were installed in China — the world’s largest carbon emitter — than the US has installed in its entire history. More electric vehicles were sold worldwide than ever. Energy efficiency is improving. Dozens of countries are widening the gap between their economic growth and their greenhouse gas emissions. And governments stepped up their ambitions to curb their impact on the climate, particularly when it comes to potent greenhouse gases like methane. If these trends continue, global emissions may actually start to decline.
Climate Analytics, a think tank, published a report last November that raised the intriguing possibility that the worst of our impact on the climate might be behind us.
“We find there is a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions,” authors wrote. “This would make 2023 the year of peak emissions.”
“It was actually a result that surprised us as well,” said Neil Grant, a climate and energy analyst at Climate Analytics and a co-author of the report. “It’s rare in the climate space that you get good news like this.”
The inertia behind this trend toward lower emissions is so immense that even politics can only slow it down, not stop it. Many of the worst-case climate scenarios imagined in past decades are now much less likely.
The United States, the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter, has already climbed down from its peak in 2005 and is descending further. In March, Carbon Brief conducted an analysis of how US greenhouse gas emissions would fare under a second Trump or a second Biden administration.
14. These &^%$ers got indicted!
It was such a busy news week, that many people didn’t notice some justice happening...
Meadows, Giuliani and other Trump allies charged in Arizona 2020 election probe
An Arizona grand jury on Wednesday indicted seven attorneys or aides affiliated with Donald Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign as well as 11 Arizona Republicans on felony charges related to their alleged efforts to subvert Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in the state, according to an announcement by the state attorney general.
Those indicted include former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, attorneys Rudy Giuliani, Jenna Ellis, John Eastman and Christina Bobb, top campaign adviser Boris Epshteyn and former campaign aide Mike Roman. They are accused of allegedly aiding an unsuccessful strategy to award the state’s electoral votes to Trump instead of Biden after the 2020 election. Also charged are the Republicans who signed paperwork on Dec. 14, 2020, that falsely purported Trump was the rightful winner, including former state party chair Kelli Ward, two state senators and Tyler Bowyer, a GOP national committeeman and chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, the campaign arm of the pro-Trump conservative group Turning Point USA.
Trump was not charged, but he is described in the indictment as an unindicted co-conspirator.
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